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Economic Recession - Orlando Bisegna Index

The economic recession is a condition that is the result of numerous negative factors from the various economic sectors of a nation. These then unfortunately lead to great economic difficulties for the citizens, job loss, company closures, a drop in consumer activity and problems with public financing.   

In order to come up with possible solutions, our research focuses on:

  • Household credit crunch
  • Core personal consumption spending (personal consumption spending excluding food and energy)
  • Personal consumption spending
  • Drop in retail sales at the fourth or from the third or the second week of the month
  • Measure of core retail sales (retail sales excluding automobile and fuel sales)
  • Retail sales
  • Measure of consumer confidence
  • Index of household difficulties in making ends meet
  • Index of households in economic hardship
  • Inflation/deflation
  • Index of store closures due to the economic situation
  • Index of household use of savings in order to face the economic crisis
  • Reduction of government legislated minimum wage or minimum wage prescribed by collective agreements
  • Index of households in difficulty in making mortgage payments
  • Index of households in difficulty in making rental home payment
  • New vehicle sales for household use
  • New vehicle sales as company cars or for car rental businesses
  • Index of lower end new car purchases with respect to previously purchased cars by same buyer
  • Incidence of promotional sales on total retail sales (promotional intensity)
  • Household propensity to put off purchasing products in order to obtain sale prices or extra discounts
  • Index of the trend to make purchases in discount and salvage grocery stores rather than in mini-markets, supermarkets and superstores
  • Amount of the average receipt from supermarkets and superstores
  • Quantity of fuel sales at pumps
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
  • Industrial production
  • Business credit crunch
  • Factory orders
  • Capacity utilisation (level of the capacity utilisation of production facilities)
  • Business closures
  • New business start-ups
  • Trend of demand for mortgages
  • Index of new homes built and unsold for more than a 24-month period
  • Unemployment rate
  • Jobs at risk over the next 6 months
  • Index of people in reduced hours employment or forced part-time from original work hours due to the economic situation
  • Index of resorting to financial assistance for workers who have lost their jobs or have remained unpaid
  • Low income households that make use of food stamps or food banks